"As Hurricane Melissa exploded into a category-5 storm over the weekend, scientists forecast its trajectory and growth with a powerful new tool - helping to inform warnings to Jamaica and other nations that the storm has devasted. That tool, an artificial intelligence (AI) forecast model developed by Google DeepMind, is successfully predicting how Melissa and other dangerous storms arise and evolve."
"DeepMind's developers trained the model on two data sets: a large database of global weather observations and a smaller database of observations that included nearly 5,000 cyclones from the past 45 years. Adding that second, cyclone-specific database might be the reason that the DeepMind model performs better on hurricane forecasts than do other AI-based forecast models, Franklin says. In particular, scientists have long struggled to improve their forecasts of a storm's intensity - but the DeepMind model seems to capture this well."
Google DeepMind developed an AI forecast model that predicts hurricane formation, trajectory, and intensity. The model is in real-time operational use by the US National Hurricane Center this year. Developers trained the model on a large global weather database plus a cyclone-specific database containing nearly 5,000 cyclones from the past 45 years. The model predicted a 50–60% chance that Melissa would reach category 5 as early as 21 October. The model shows improved intensity forecasts compared with other AI models, and veteran scientists describe its performance as unusually fast and among the best available.
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