"New data from Novuna Business Finance reveals the first green shoots of a potentially new upward trend in small business growth forecasts. Following a worrying 18-month period since mid-2024, when the percentage of small businesses predicting growth fell for five-consecutive quarters - to a five-year low of 25% - January 2026 sees an upturn, with 27% of enterprises predicting growth for the first three-months of 2026."
"There were quarter-on-quarter improvements in small business growth forecasts in nine industry sectors, including: manufacturing (27%), construction (22%), retail (32%), finance /accounting (37%), legal services (45%), medical services (34%), transport/distribution (29%), property/real estate (28%) and agriculture (21%). In the manufacturing and transport/distribution sectors, the percentage of small businesses forecasting growth this quarter reached the highest level for 12-months, and there were also 6-month highs recorded in the constructio"
Jan 2026 shows a modest upturn in small business growth forecasts, with 27% of enterprises predicting growth for the first quarter of 2026 after five consecutive quarterly declines that hit a five-year low of 25%. The 18-month slide represents the longest slump in the Business Barometer’s 12-year tracking history. Nine industry sectors reported quarter-on-quarter improvements, led by strong readings in legal services, finance/accounting, retail, medical services and transport/distribution. Eighty-four percent of small business owners intended to pursue new growth initiatives entering 2026. The data suggests an organic rise in growth outlook despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
Read at London Business News | Londonlovesbusiness.com
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