"“They're ripping angry at [Iran] and they're quite concerned about the rhetoric coming out of the U.S. because the only thing worse than the situation now would be a failed state with 90-plus million people. We haven't seen anything like it elsewhere in the world,” he told me. “I personally worry about what happens if this goes on much longer. It's the second-order products that don't get the headlines...Fertilizer is a big one.”"
"“The people I talk to on this, their fingers crossed, feel like the world will get through this year because a lot of the fertilizer was already in the supply chain. But you could have a [crisis] situation during next year's planting season, largely outside the U.S.”"
"“AI is taking away tasks, not jobs. If you want to put it in baseball terms, we're in the first inning in terms of how you take advantage of this technology and deploy it. It's still a toss-up whether the incumbents are going to win or the new entities. Incumbents have a lot of reasons to win-because of data, the moat, and the relationships,” he said."
"“Crypto gets all the attention but what's going to be more meaningful is just the digitalization of assets-whether it's money market funds, tokenization of them, the ability to actually take a piece”"
The Iran war is causing a realignment of global capital flows, particularly as Gulf states and sovereign wealth funds deploy large amounts of capital. Concerns focus on U.S. rhetoric and the risk of a failed state with a very large population. The impact may show up through second-order effects such as fertilizer supply disruptions, potentially creating a crisis during next year’s planting season outside the U.S. AI is described as removing tasks rather than eliminating jobs, with early-stage adoption and uncertainty about whether incumbents or new entities will win. Attention on crypto is viewed as misplaced, while broader digitalization of assets, including tokenization and money-market-related structures, is expected to be more meaningful.
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