"The budget is tomorrow, and rumblings in the press suggest the government could fall over it. The opposition parties are weighing their options. Everybody is making demands, but there's no ideal world, no theodicy, in which all the pressures and tensions and inconsistencies may be resolved-lower and higher taxes, more and less social program spending, government intervention to address the climate crisis, and government abdication from that role. In short, something's gotta give. So far, no one seems to want to be a giver."
"The Liberals are just shy of a majority in the House of Commons, so close that, mere months ago, the proclamations in the press assured us Prime Minister Mark Carney had a working or functional or de facto majority. Now, we're all hoping enough members of Parliament get leave to fake a cold (there's always something going around), miss the vote, and forgo a winter election in the cold and the dark."
"Fred Delorey, who knows plenty about political manoeuvring and party machinations, writes that we are indeed heading for an election. He makes a compelling case, particularly regarding the New Democratic Party, which is in the middle of a leadership election. He argues the party could gain seats in an election given their strong ground game and, at the very least, they would get to reset."
It's raining in Ottawa and cold. The budget is imminent and could topple the government amid press rumblings. Opposition parties are weighing demands across tradeoffs including taxes, social spending, climate intervention, and government retreat. Parties may bargain to lowest offers or fail to reach accord, risking a close call. The Liberals hover just shy of a majority, prompting hopes some MPs will miss the vote to avoid a winter election amid economic pressure from the United States. The New Democratic Party may gain seats due to organizing strength and leadership renewal, while the Liberals may try to control the election framing.
Read at The Walrus
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