"The reigning back-to-back AL Cy Young winner filed at a record $32 million, while his team countered with $19 million. That's the largest gap in arbitration history, and Skubal winning would beat Juan Soto 's $31 million with the Yankees in 2024 as the highest ever. As wild as it sounds that the Tigers could possibly poke holes in Skubal's performance, which has made him one of the best two pitchers on the planet right now, they may not have to try very hard to win their case."
"First, the process itself works in their favor. The arb panel must choose one number or the other rather than assigning a "fair figure," so the burden lies more with Team Skubal to prove their $32 million filing is better. And while that is easily a valid salary in today's climate for a god-tier southpaw who continues to get better and won't turn 30 until November, the huge jump from 2025 works against him."
"Consider that Soto earned $17.1 million from the Nationals in 2022, then got $23 million from the Padres the following season. Those 35% bumps represent significant raises, but they don't compare to Skubal asking for three times as much as he earned last season ($10.15M). Again, I'm not saying he's not worth it in a vacuum. The issue comes down to precedent, for which there is none in this case."
Major League Baseball's arbitration panel must select either the player's filed salary or the team's offer, with no middle ground. That rule places the burden on the player to justify a high figure rather than allowing a compromise. Tarik Skubal filed for $32 million while the Tigers countered with $19 million, creating the largest gap in arbitration history and a roughly 200% raise request over his previous $10.15M salary. Comparable recent raises, like Juan Soto's increases, were far smaller percentage jumps. No precedent exists for such a large award, and panels historically have not granted awards above about $20 million.
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