"Bitcoin's start to November is looking less than ideal for bulls, with bitcoin trading down over 3% at this time of writing. Over the course of October, long-term bitcoin holders sold over 400,000 bitcoin, about 2% in circulating supply. The fact that the draw down hasn't been much more extreme is a positive sign for bitcoin's resilience. With DAT's and ETF's gobbling up available supply, the market structure is dramatically different than prior cycles, and much more mature."
"Ethereum has been hit even harder than bitcoin, trading down nearly 8% on the day so far. Thin liquidity and less buyers absorbing the blow has not created a great setup for Ethereum. Since October 10th, perpetual futures funding rates have been near flat or gone negative. Ethereum has a negative funding rate across several exchanges, meaning short traders now pay for their position, a sign of a bearish market."
"Deribit, the leading options market for crypto, has significant open interest in puts below $3,700, showing that traders are positioning themselves for more drawdown in the market. November 28th expiries are starting to gain more and more positions below the $3,000 level. This doesn't bode well for bulls."
Bitcoin opened November down over 3 percent after long-term holders sold more than 400,000 bitcoin in October, roughly 2 percent of circulating supply. The limited magnitude of the drawdown so far suggests some resilience even as exchange-traded products absorb available supply and alter market structure. The market remains fragile and further downside is possible without positive macro catalysts, with bitcoin trading below its 200-day SMA and eyes on sub-$100,000 levels. Ethereum slid nearly 8 percent amid thin liquidity, near-flat or negative funding rates since October 10th, and substantial put open interest at lower strikes, signaling bearish positioning.
Read at 24/7 Wall St.
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