"The study shows that improving the ability to separate out natural variation in wind patterns from the human-driven climate crisis is central to improving regional rainfall forecasts and providing advance warning of extreme events."
"Climate models are accurately capturing the impact of a warmer atmosphere holding more moisture, but struggling to represent the shift in atmospheric circulation patterns caused by human emissions."
In October 2024, Valencia experienced devastating floods due to a storm that dropped over a year's worth of rain, resulting in over 230 fatalities. Weather forecasts predicted a major storm but failed to accurately identify the timing and location of heavy rainfall. A study revealed that climate models underestimate changes in large-scale wind patterns, such as the jet stream, which influence storm tracks and rainfall distribution. Enhancing the understanding of these patterns is crucial for improving rainfall forecasts and preventing future disasters.
Read at www.theguardian.com
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