A worst-case climate pathway projected more than 4°C of warming by the end of the century is now assessed as less probable. The pathway was originally designed as a low-probability, high-risk benchmark rather than a prediction, reflecting late-2000s energy and emissions trends dominated by coal, oil, and gas. Updated assessments attribute the reduced likelihood to renewable energy build-out occurring faster than expected and to government policies that slow projected emissions growth. The shift is described as fundamentally good news, but it is also framed as a reason to avoid complacency. The revised assessment is also used by climate skeptics to challenge broader climate concerns.
"A temperature rise of more than 4 degrees Celsius (7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of the century would bring with it catastrophic consequences, including deadly heat waves, rising seas, crop failures and mass displacement. But a scientific paper published in April says that doomsday pathway known as RCP8.5 and later SSP5-8.5 is now less probable. Designed as a benchmark to help governments prepare for dangerous possibilities, the worst-case scenario was not a prediction."
"It reflected the knowledge and energy trends of the late 2000s, when the world was more reliant on burning planet-heating coal, oil and gas. But those trends have now changed. The world is not heading toward the worst-case scenario "because we've actually taken political measures allowing us to move away from that," French climate scientist Christophe Cassou told the AFP news agency."
"The new assessment attributes the shift to renewable energy build-out happening faster than expected, with many governments adopting policies that have slowed projected emissions growth. Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London, said the worst-case scenario had "assumed humanity would continue an unchecked coal-driven fossil fuel boom, which fortunately did not happen.""
"While acknowledging that as "fundamentally good news," she urged that it "should by no means lead to complacency." Climate skeptics seize on revised scenario US President Donald Trump seized on the revision to"
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