""We're moving to what's called the 90th percentile, meaning the center should only move outside that cone one tenth of the time, or 10% of the time. So there's less of a chance that the center will move outside of that new experimental cone.""
""The main changes to note are with the cone forecast graphic. First, the cone itself will take on more of an elliptical shape than a circular one. This is to help increase the accuracy in the long term and from update to update.""
""Now those alerts will extend farther inland. This is an effort to give a more comprehensive look at the risk a storm could pose to communities.""
""For Hawaii, there are now storm surge watches, warnings, flooding, and surge forecasts available for the islands.""
Starting in the 2026 hurricane season, the National Hurricane Center will introduce several changes to its forecast products. The forecast cone will adopt an elliptical shape to enhance accuracy, aiming for the center to remain within the cone 90% of the time. Inland watches and warnings will now be included, extending alerts beyond coastal areas to better inform communities at risk. Additionally, systems with a near-zero chance of development will be marked with a grey X on the tropical outlook map, improving clarity in forecasts.
Read at ABC13 Houston
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