In recent months, Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) has emerged as the most formidable militant force in the Sahel, overrun cities in Burkina Faso and Mali, and executed deadly attacks in Benin. With around 6,000 fighters, its expansion is viewed as a response to local strategies combatting it, which have paradoxically legitimized its authority. The U.S. withdrawal has created a security vacuum, raising concerns over JNIM's capacity and intentions. Accompanied by a rise in terrorism in the region, this has facilitated military coups that seek to diminish Western influence.
"They're creating a proto-state that stretches like a belt from western Mali all the way to the borderlands of Benin. ... It is a substantial - even exponential - expansion," said Héni Nsaibia, West Africa senior analyst for the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data project.
The U.S. has largely pulled back from - or been pushed out - of the fight, leaving in its wake a deepening security vacuum and mounting anxiety over JNIM's aims and capabilities.
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