"To be clear, while this is only a few data points, the r-squared between these two data elements is over 50 percent, i.e., over half the variation in league-average HR/FB alone is explained just by the mean drag coefficient for the year. The chart is also incredibly blatant (one goes up, the other goes down), with the main thing ruining being, in part, 2025 - where the ball's coefficient of restitution changed in addition to its drag coefficient."
"How can we tell? Leaguewide exit velocity essentially didn't budge year-to-year from 2015-2024, decreasing four times year-over-year while increasing five times, until having a big jump from 2024 to 2025. (Also, note: there was a big fall from 2016 to 2017, and then it went back to where it was in 2018. Unclear whether 2026 will go back to 2024-and-before levels.) There's no real way to know what MLB is planning... or inadvertently going to engender for 2026."
MLB provides public drag-coefficient data that directly affects ball travel distance. Lower drag coefficients produce farther-traveling batted balls and higher fly-ball home run rates. Mean drag coefficient explains over half the year-to-year variation in league-average HR/FB (r-squared > 50%). The 2025 season combined increased drag with a heightened coefficient of restitution, creating a draggier but springier ball that muddied relationships. Leaguewide exit velocity was stable from 2015–2024 before jumping from 2024 to 2025. A 112+ mph, 22-degree batted ball in spring training traveled short of 400 feet under the 2025 conditions, where prior similar events cleared the fence.
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