"Preseason rankings are a great glimpse of a college basketball season ahead. But we can only measure what we see right now. And that lens is limited. Over the next five months, however, some of the top teams in the country -- and a couple of mid-majors -- will hit a mark that might be more indicative of a team's ceiling: 30 wins."
"Since 2013-14 -- and we're eliminating the 2019-20 season that ended without an NCAA tournament as well as the 2020-21 campaign that featured imbalanced schedules due to the pandemic -- seven of the 10 national champions had won at least 28 games by the time they reached Selection Sunday. Ninety-three teams reached the 30-win mark by the end of those respective seasons in that stretch, too."
"Teams can always get hot and make a run in the NCAA tournament to turn a solid 24- or 25-win season into a miraculous finish that ends with a national title. In recent college basketball history, however, the bulk of the national champions were already flirting with that 30-win tally before they cut down the nets in the final game."
Preseason rankings provide an early look but are limited in predicting outcomes. The 30-win mark often indicates a team's ceiling and correlates with championship success. Since 2013-14 (excluding 2019-20 and 2020-21), seven of ten national champions had at least 28 wins by Selection Sunday, and 93 teams reached 30 wins during that span. Tournament runs can transform 24-25 win teams, but most recent champions were already near 30 wins. Only Baylor (28 wins in 2021) and Arizona (25-9 in 1997) won titles without 30 wins. Several teams possess the talent, experience, depth and schedules to reach 30 wins.
Read at ESPN.com
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