"The Washington Capitals control play well during five-on-five. Our best tool for measuring puck possession is shot attempts. The Caps are the team behind 55.4 percent of attempts in their games, third best in the league behind Colorado and Carolina. Early-season possession is a good indicator of success later in the season. We should feel good about the Caps' ability to drive play, but there's a big caveat."
"In their games against all other teams, the Caps' opponents have averaged 48.3 percent of both shot attempts and expected goals. The Bruins, Kraken, and Canucks are all below 45 percent. And I don't know what the heck is going on with Dallas - a 6-3-3 record but ranked last in shot attempts and bottom ten in expected goals. Washington's schedule in October was cushy; leading models predict those teams wll finish with an average of 89 points."
"According to my favorite site, Natural Stat Trick, the Caps have had 129 high-danger chances during five-on-five play through 12 games. That's a high number - fifth most in the league. You can see that reinforced by this heatmap from my other favorite site, HockeyViz. The opponent's goal is at the top. The deep red blob indicates that the Caps are getting lots of chances from that location - all up in the goalie's face. One problem: Their shots aren't going in."
Washington has lost four straight games and faces St. Louis next. The Capitals control five-on-five play, posting 55.4 percent of shot attempts, third in the league. Early-season possession typically predicts later success, but opponents so far have been weak, averaging 48.3 percent of shot attempts and expected goals. October opponents project to 89 points on average while November opponents project to 94. Washington has generated 129 high-danger chances through 12 games, often from close to the net, yet the team is failing to finish as shots are not finding the net.
Read at RMNB
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