""Many of us experience inflection points as a single moment in time when everything changes irrevocably," the longtime Columbia Business School professor wrote. "[But] when you look at the true nature of inflection points, you see a different story. It is similar to the way in which Hemingway's character, Mike Campbell in The Sun Also Rises, responds to being asked how he went bankrupt. 'Gradually,' he says. 'And then suddenly.'""
""Fame and its avalanche of leotards and primary colors was released in 1980, when the average life expectancy was 73 years in Europe and 74 years in the U.S. Artificial intelligence has reached its "suddenly" moment, and dangerously so, according to those who worry about bubbles. Climate change and sustainability have been in the "gradual" phase for decades, much to the frustration of environmental activists. "Longevity"-the challenge of aging populations-is in the "gradual" phase. It could move to "suddenly" rather more quickly than many imagine.""
Western populations are aging, with average life expectancy rising from roughly the early 70s in 1980 to projected averages near the mid-80s in Europe and low 80s in the U.S. by 2030. A growing share of elderly citizens will alter labor markets, consumer demand, healthcare needs, and public finances. Strategic foresight and the ability to spot inflection points are critical for leaders. Some trends, like artificial intelligence, can shift suddenly while others, like climate change, have been gradual. Longevity currently appears gradual but could accelerate rapidly, posing urgent economic and strategic implications.
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