"Moscow has proven reliable at repetition, the same strategic cycle, year after year, season after season. Once again, Russia is preparing a major spring offensive, following months of costly, grinding assaults that failed to deliver any decisive breakthrough."
"The bombing of civilian infrastructure and power plants, intended to break the will of the Ukrainian people, has failed. Predictions from some quarters that Ukraine would not even see spring have proven equally misplaced."
"Even pro-Kremlin messaging has quietly shifted away from promises of breakthrough toward the language of attritional inevitability, and yet, as spring approaches, this is not simply a story of Russian failure."
"Recent reporting suggests Moscow is refining its approach. Rather than relying on large, exposed formations, Russia is intensifying artillery strikes and drone warfare across key sectors of the front, signaling preparation rather than pause."
As winter ends in Ukraine, Russia's military strategy remains predictable, following a Soviet-era doctrine. Despite expectations for a decisive spring offensive, previous costly assaults have not yielded breakthroughs. The bombing of civilian infrastructure has failed to demoralize Ukrainians. While Russia can endure losses, it struggles with effective maneuver warfare. Recent assessments indicate preparations for renewed offensives, with artillery and drone strikes increasing, suggesting a shift in tactics away from large formations to more refined operations.
Read at London Business News | Londonlovesbusiness.com
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