Tesla is about to reveal its Q2 2025 earnings, and investor sentiment is cautiously optimistic despite the loss of EV tax credits posing a challenge. Dan Ives from Wedbush maintains a bullish outlook on the stock, noting Musk's renewed commitment to the company. He expects a rebound in global deliveries, particularly in the second half of the year, driven by the updated Model Y. Discussions on the implications of the EV tax credit changes and future autonomy valuations will be crucial in the upcoming earnings call.
Clearly, losing the EV tax credits with the recent Beltway Bill will be a headwind to Tesla and competitors in the EV landscape looking ahead, and this cash cow will become less of the story (and FCF) in 2026.
We would expect some directional guidance on this topic during the conference call. Importantly, we anticipate deliveries globally to rebound in 2H led by some improvement on the key China front with the Model Y refresh a catalyst.
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