"First things first, the headlines you are waking up to are only an emerging picture. The morning after a general election, the result is pretty much complete by breakfast time - but that is not the case in this patchwork of elections around Britain. So far, we have a chunk of the results around the parts of England that have had contests and no results yet from Scotland or Wales. But nonetheless, there are trends that we can take a look at."
"Reform are ahead, winning the most votes, as they did in last year's local elections. And behind them there is the trailing pack of Labour, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party of England and Wales. The much talked about fracturing of our politics is there to see, with none of the parties managing a runaway popularity, but votes splintering in five or more different directions. So far, Reform can point to substantial success. They have been winning about a third of the seats that have been declared."
"Labour have lost a little under half of the seats they have been trying to defend and they are defending the most seats in this set of elections. The parties' spin operations are up and running. At the core of Labour's argument is that elections are often challenging for governments mid term and are poor predictors of what might happen at the next general election. This is true, up to a point although the governing party didn't go backwards in terms of seats in 2011, 2015, 2017 or 2021 for example. And Labour are going backwards big time."
"What will be key in the coming hours and days is how Labour manage these losses psychologically. It is one thing to imagine root canal surgery at the dentist. Another to actually sit in the chair and have it done. Take Tameside in Greater Manchester, the patch of the former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner. Labour was defending 17 seats and lost 16 of them, all to Reform. That will hurt. Not far"
Results are emerging unevenly across Britain, with some English contests declared and no results yet from Scotland or Wales. Reform is ahead, winning the most votes and securing about a third of declared seats, continuing a pattern seen in last year’s local elections. Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, and the Green Party of England and Wales trail behind. Voting appears fractured, with no party achieving runaway popularity and support splitting across multiple directions. Labour has lost a little under half of the seats it is defending while defending the most seats in this set of elections. Labour’s messaging emphasizes that midterm elections are difficult for governments and do not reliably predict the next general election, but Labour’s seat losses are substantial. Tameside in Greater Manchester shows the scale of the damage, with Labour losing 16 of 17 seats, all to Reform.
Read at www.bbc.com
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