"Off-year elections are often a referendum on the president and his party. And this year, of course, that means President Trump and Republicans. Trump is unpopular, particularly with independents, who will be key in swing districts in next year's midterm elections. So the narratives and the margins coming out of the Nov. 4 elections will matter and offer some clues as to how the landscape for 2026 begins to take shape. Here are five questions to consider when thinking about Tuesday's elections:"
"How much of a drag is Trump? Republicans lost 40 House seats during Trump's first midterm in 2018. Just before that election, Trump's approval rating, according to Gallup, was 40%. Now, it's an almost identical 41%. Democrats have certainly been trying to use Trump a lot in the 2025 elections, mentioning him often in ads, and trying to tie their Republican opponents to him."
"But these elections have a history of moving in the direction of the party opposite of the president's. That's because they're among the first chances for voters aligned with the party out of power to register their frustration. It's why, for example, the governor's race in Virginia has gone to the opposition party in 11 of the last 12, dating back to 1977. (The exception was Democrat Terry McAuliffe during Obama's presidency.)"
Off-year elections often function as a referendum on the president and his party and can indicate voter mood heading into midterms. President Trump is unpopular, particularly with independents who will be decisive in swing districts next year. Trump’s approval rating sits at about 41 percent, almost identical to his approval before the 2018 midterms when Republicans lost 40 House seats. Democrats are emphasizing Trump in ads to tie Republican candidates to him, while many Republican candidates are avoiding ties to the president. Historically, these elections tend to favor the party opposite the president, especially in gubernatorial contests.
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