"Friday's labor market data showed the U.S. job market added a measly 22,000 roles last month, managing not to slip into the territory of unemployment on account of immigration and retirement figures rising. And this week two further datasets raised eyebrows, including a whopping downward revision of 911,000 jobs from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' nonfarm payroll reporting for the year ended March 2025. That data, released Tuesday, showed a contraction of 0.6% compared to previous estimates."
"In its Employment Trends Index (ETI) released yesterday, the Conference Board reported its benchmark had declined in August to 106.41, from a downwardly revised 107.13 in July. Among the components of the index is the share of consumers who report "jobs are hard to get," which rose to 20% in August from 18.9% in July and is the highest share since early 2021, the height of the COVID pandemic."
"U.S. labor market data is flashing warning signs, with the Conference Board's Employment Trends Index falling again in August and temporary hiring shrinking. Economist Mitchell Barnes said the weakness could mark a turning point, though ClearBridge's Jeff Schulze argued underlying resilience should support a rebound in 2026. While many economists acknowledge the labor market has held up remarkably well over the past few years, analysts are beginning to fear its luck has run out."
U.S. labor market indicators show signs of weakening, with the Conference Board's Employment Trends Index falling to 106.41 in August from a downwardly revised 107.13 in July. Nonfarm payrolls were revised down by 911,000 jobs for the year ended March 2025, a 0.6% contraction versus previous estimates. August payrolls increased by only 22,000, supported by immigration and retirements. Consumer reports that 'jobs are hard to get' rose to 20%, the highest since early 2021. Temporary-help employment declined by 9,800 in August, often an early signal of employer trimming. Economists are split on whether this marks a permanent turning point or a temporary weakness ahead of a 2026 rebound.
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