Vincent Deluard, of StoneX, forecasts a sharp but brief correction in US stocks before September due to factors including the end of Trump’s tariff negotiations and delayed interest rate cuts. He anticipates a potential sell-off starting in late July or early August, driven by foreign investor anxieties and the narrow breadth of recent market rallies. Despite these corrections, Deluard believes a prolonged recession is unlikely, attributing economic resilience to intangible assets, ongoing stimulus, and demographic trends.
Vincent Deluard, the director of global macro strategy at StoneX, stated, "I expect US stocks to experience a sharp but brief correction in the summer." He highlighted the upcoming end of Donald Trump's tariff negotiations and the potential delay of further rate cuts as reasons for the anticipated stock slump.
Deluard expressed that foreign investors are anxious about "Trump's antics" with tariffs and their exposure to the US economy, contributing to potential short-term sell-offs, despite the allure of dominant Big Tech stocks.
Despite anticipating corrections in the stock market, Deluard concluded, "recessions have been canceled by the shift to intangible assets, permanent stimulus, and demographics," indicating a resilient economy.
He noted that narrow market rallies often lead to corrections within a month, and he expects several steep corrections in stocks, driven by erratic policymaking and pressure from rising bond yields.
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