"Most of the known metrics for next Tuesday's gubernatorial election in New Jersey suggest cautious optimism for Democratic nominee Mikie Sherrill. All but one public poll in the entire cycle has shown her leading Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli, usually by a small but steady margin. Early voting numbers show much the same narrow Democratic margin in in-person voting (which concludes on Sunday), plus a big Democratic margin in voting by mail, that prevailed in 2021."
"There is nonetheless a distinct air of uncertainty surrounding the ultimate results and a lot of nervousness among Democrats. Much of the uncertainty flows from what might be called a double-incumbency phenomenon. Off-year elections in New Jersey and elsewhere tend strongly to cut against the party controlling the White House, particularly when the occupant is as unpopular as Donald Trump is right now."
Most known metrics suggest cautious optimism for Democratic nominee Mikie Sherrill. Almost every public poll in the cycle shows her leading Republican Jack Ciattarelli by a small but steady margin. Early in-person voting mirrors that narrow Democratic edge while voting by mail shows a large Democratic advantage, and overall early turnout is up. New Jersey caps direct-candidate spending through public financing, while heavy independent expenditures favor Sherrill. Off-year dynamics typically penalize the president's party, and New Jersey has not given the governorship to the same party three consecutive times since 1961. Doubts persist because incumbent Phil Murphy is unpopular and because Ciattarelli and Donald Trump improved performance recently.
Read at Intelligencer
Unable to calculate read time
Collection
[
|
...
]