"It's definitely possible to overreact to special election results. These episodic contests, often far down-ballot, tend to attract low and sometimes skewed voter turnout. But the special elections held since Donald Trump 's 2024 victory add to the evidence that his party is headed for some real problems in November. The latest Democratic win is quite the shocker. In a very large (larger than a U.S. House district) state senate district deep in the heart of Texas that Trump won by 17 points,"
"local union leader and Democrat Taylor Rehmet trounced veteran conservative activist Leigh Wambsganss by 14 points (it was technically a runoff election for the two candidates who finished first and second in the first round in November). There's nothing about this traditionally very conservative Fort Worth-area district that made it particularly susceptible to an upset of this depth, which contributes to the sense that it's part of a national vibe-shift, as this account of recent state legislative special election trend-lines indicates:"
"CNN numbers-cruncher Harry Enten summed up the situation and what such trends have met in the passt: Texas-9 didn't just swing to the left on Saturday... It took a rocket ship. GOP should be worried. Why?1. Dems are now outperforming Harris' 2024 baseline by 12 pts in the avg. special.2. The party that outperforms in specials went on to win the House in the last 5 midterms."
Special elections sometimes produce exaggerated signals because of low, skewed turnout, but a set of recent contests shows a clear pro-Democratic pattern that could presage November trouble for Republicans. A Democratic victory in a large Texas state senate district that Trump won by 17 points featured union leader Taylor Rehmet winning by 14 points in a Fort Worth-area seat long considered reliably conservative. Multiple state legislative special-election flips across several states show substantial Democratic gains. Aggregate metrics show Democrats outperforming the 2024 baseline by roughly 12 points in specials, and historical precedent links special-election outperformance to House gains.
Read at Intelligencer
Unable to calculate read time
Collection
[
|
...
]