President Trump's tax bill, known as the 'one big, beautiful bill', is now in the Senate, but its progress is hindered by the Byrd rule. This Senate rule allows the removal of provisions from budget reconciliation bills if their fiscal impacts are merely incidental. As Republicans attempt to utilize a simple-majority vote for passage, understanding the Byrd rule becomes crucial, as it involves a balancing act between policy changes and their budgetary effects, potentially jeopardizing key components of the bill.
Many have criticized the Byrd rule as arbitrary, and it can certainly seem that way. But last year, I published a detailed analysis of Byrd rule doctrine that described several rules guiding what is and is not permitted in reconciliation bills.
As the Senate parliamentarian has written, her office balances whether a provision involves 'a policy change that substantially outweighs the budgetary impact of that change.' Two Senate staffers elaborated on this, noting that 'the more budgetary effect, the more policy change is permissible under the Byrd rule.'
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