"What Trump seems to have hoped would be a Venezuela redux-a quick decapitation of the regime followed by a swift deal with the leader's successor-has deteriorated into a regional war. Tehran telegraphed that this would happen, but it still apparently caught Trump by surprise. Now the United States is approaching a quagmire as news reports suggest that the CIA is arming Kurdish groups inside Iran."
"The post-Khamenei landscape in Iran lacks any such singular, empowered interlocutor. The Islamic Republic's parallel power structure, coupled with a 47-year ideology of resistance, has for decades created an enduring dilemma: Those who want to make amends with America cannot deliver, while those who may be able to deliver do not want to make amends."
Iran has repeatedly disrupted U.S. presidencies over five decades, from the 1979 hostage crisis ending Carter's term to the Iran-Contra scandal under Reagan, Iraqi interference during Bush's presidency, the nuclear deal controversy under Obama, and Hamas attacks during Biden's administration. Trump anticipated a swift regime change in Iran similar to Venezuela, where Vice President Delcy RodrÃguez maintained sufficient authority to negotiate with the Trump administration. However, Iran's complex parallel power structure and 47-year ideology of resistance created a fundamentally different situation. Unlike Venezuela's centralized decision-making, Iran lacks a singular empowered figure capable of negotiating with America. The structural dilemma persists: those willing to reconcile with the United States cannot deliver results, while those with actual power refuse reconciliation, leaving Trump ensnared in an escalating regional conflict.
#iran-foreign-policy #us-presidential-politics #regime-change-strategy #regional-conflict #diplomatic-negotiations
Read at The Atlantic
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