"If there was a moment when the absence of a US strategy on Iran was exposed, then this was it. Donald Trump demanded on Saturday that the UK, China, France, Japan and others participate in a naval escort for oil tankers through the strait of Hormuz. Despite launching the attack on Iran, with Israel, the White House does not seem to have fully anticipated what was likely to follow."
"Iran had few good military options for fighting back, but attacking US bases, US allies and merchant shipping in the Gulf was the most obvious response to try to impose costs on the west. Iran had been gearing up for a long period of resistance, with Ali Khamenei, the former supreme leader, pressing subordinates to name four levels of succession in the expectation that he and others might be killed."
"So far, in the two-week bombing war, the US has focused on Iran's navy and missile sites. But this has not managed to eliminate the asymmetric threat posed against undefended merchant ships. Sixteen have been attacked, according to the Lloyd's List journal, and tankers do not want to risk the journey through the strait."
Following US military strikes on Iran, the Trump administration exposed strategic gaps by demanding international naval escorts for oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Despite targeting Iran's navy and missile sites, the US failed to eliminate asymmetric threats against merchant vessels, with sixteen ships attacked according to Lloyd's List. Iran, having prepared for prolonged resistance with succession planning, possesses multiple attack options including speedboats, drones, and sea mines. The US Navy's reluctance to conduct escorts itself, preferring to operate from 200km offshore, highlights the absence of comprehensive planning. Energy Secretary Chris Wright suggested potential escort capability by month's end, but the underlying strategic vacuum remains unaddressed.
#us-iran-conflict #strait-of-hormuz-security #military-strategy #oil-tanker-attacks #asymmetric-warfare
Read at www.theguardian.com
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