"Nobody gave the Boers a prayer when the war in South Africa began in 1899. It was farmers ranged against the might of the British empire, and the expectation was that resistance would quickly crumble. Eventually, might did prevail. Britain won the Boer war, but it was a hollow victory that took the best part of three years to achieve and came at a high cost."
"The Iranians are using guerrilla tactics, just as the Boers did, with much success. There is little doubt that, in the end, superior US and Israeli firepower will prevail, but at what price? The oil market tells its own story. The war in Iran has spilled over into the wider Middle East and shows no sign of ending anytime soon."
"The long postwar boom was brought to an end by the quadrupling of oil prices that followed the Yom Kippur war in 1973, and every subsequent sustained surge in the cost of crude has had serious knock-on effects. The pattern is clear. The initial impact of rising energy prices is on inflation, with the hit to growth coming later. Ultimately, oil shocks cause recessions."
The Boer War demonstrated that military superiority does not guarantee quick victory or prestige. Britain defeated Boer farmers but required three years and suffered significant costs, damaging its global standing as other powers rose. Currently, the US faces similar challenges in Iran, where guerrilla tactics prolong conflict despite American firepower advantage. Iranian missile strikes on Gulf oil facilities and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have caused oil prices to surge 50% and gas prices similarly. Historical precedent shows oil shocks trigger inflation followed by recession, as demonstrated after the 1973 Yom Kippur War. Sustained energy price increases consistently produce serious economic consequences globally.
#military-conflict-and-economic-consequences #oil-price-shocks-and-recession-risk #guerrilla-warfare-tactics #global-economic-impact #middle-east-geopolitics
Read at www.theguardian.com
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