"Hours before Khamenei's compound in Tehran was reduced to rubble last week, an account under the username "magamyman" bet about $20,000 that the supreme leader would no longer be in power by the end of March. Polymarket placed the odds at just 14 percent, netting "magamyman" a profit of more than $120,000."
"The day before, 150 users bet at least $1,000 that the United States would strike Iran within the next 24 hours, according to a New York Times analysis. Until then, few people on the platform were betting that kind of money on an immediate attack."
"In January, someone on Polymarket made a series of suspiciously well-timed bets right before the U.S. attacked a foreign country and deposed its leader. By the time Nicolás Maduro was extracted from Venezuela and flown to New York, the user had pocketed more than $400,000."
Polymarket, a prediction market platform, saw suspicious betting patterns preceding major geopolitical events. Before Ayatollah Khamenei's death, an account bet $20,000 on his removal from power at 14 percent odds, earning over $120,000. The day before the attack, 150 users placed substantial bets on imminent U.S. military action against Iran. Similar patterns emerged in January when traders profited over $400,000 betting on Nicolás Maduro's removal from Venezuela. These well-timed bets raise concerns about insider trading, as traders use cryptocurrency and blockchain anonymity. Investigations into potential misuse of classified information are underway, including an Israeli military reservist case.
#polymarket-insider-trading #geopolitical-prediction-markets #cryptocurrency-anonymity #military-intelligence-leaks #blockchain-based-betting
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