USO does hold front-month WTI futures contracts and rolls them forward each month, selling the expiring contract and buying the next. When the futures curve is in contango, later-dated contracts cost more than near-term ones, so that the monthly roll is a guaranteed loss. You sell low, buy high, repeat. Over time, those small losses compound into a meaningful gap between what oil prices do and what USO shareholders actually earn.
The most important macro factor for WEAT is precipitation timing across the central and southern Plains. Winter wheat crops are experiencing stress from extended cold spells and persistent dryness, according to recent analysis. While localized snow and rain provided some relief, the critical window is approaching. Late-winter and early-spring moisture will determine whether stressed crops recover or production estimates get slashed.