For the past several years, the U.S. housing market has faced an unusual constraint: not a lack of buyers, but a lack of sellers willing or able to move. Millions of homeowners remain rate-locked, holding mortgages originated in 20202022 at interest rates between 2% and 4% (Federal Housing Finance Agency; Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey). While home values have risen, the financial penalty of selling and repurchasing at today's 6%7% rates has discouraged mobility, suppressing inventory and transaction volume nationwide (National Association of Realtors; HousingWire).
We just came off a record month, and this month (October) is on pace for another all-time record. I would say the drivers have been non-agency loans or non-QM. So if you look at just non-agency estimates earlier in the year, people were forecasting a range of $60 billion to $70 billion in non-QM. We're probably hit over $100 billion this year, so a 50% beat from the beginning of the year.