A market downtown in the first few years of retirement, combined with regular withdrawals, can permanently damage a portfolio's ability to sustain income over time. The same downturn occurring 10 or 15 years later, when withdrawals have already been funded by earlier growth, does far less harm.
At 2.16% annual inflation, purchasing power erodes slowly but steadily. Using the 4% withdrawal rule, $800,000 supports roughly $32,000 per year in initial withdrawals, adjusted annually for inflation. The critical nuance: withdrawing 4% during the first 7 years exposes you to sequence-of-returns risk. A 20% market drop in year one means selling assets at depressed prices, permanently reducing recovery potential.
