Confidence is highest through Saturday because the individual models agree well on the timing of the Thursday storm and the following break. Southern California's mountains pick up a quick shot of snow on Thursday with strong winds, then dry out into the weekend. Beyond the weekend, the signal stays active, but model spread grows fast on storm timing, snow levels, and wind impacts, so expect meaningful swings from run to run.
The National Weather Service is making no promises the forecast is currently "low to moderate confidence" but the agency says that a low pressure system is moving down from Alaska and should be impacting the West Coast with rain by Friday, likely starting in the North Bay. The storm system is being called an atmospheric river, and meteorologists say that parts of Northern California and the southern Oregon coast are the most likely to see heavy rainfall by the weekend.
