""Our base case is that the consumer will remain resilient and the AI tailwind will strengthen this year. But we caution that the Iran war could derail both spending (via inflation) and AI capex (via energy supply bottlenecks).""
""The ROI on capex is likely to dwarf the capex itself, which is why investment continues to grow. Polls may show that AI is not popular, but economic growth is. At this point, stopping progress in AI would be equivalent to halting the U.S. economy.""
""AI spending has been a major contributor to economic growth in recent years. Analysis from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis found that AI investments contributed significantly to real GDP growth in 2025, surpassing the growth driven by IT components in the dot com era.""
The US economy is increasingly dependent on consumer spending and AI capital expenditures for growth. Bank of America anticipates these factors will continue to drive GDP, but warns that the Iran war could negatively impact both through inflation and energy supply issues. Big Tech companies are investing heavily in AI, with projected capital expenditures reaching up to $800 billion by 2026. This investment is expected to significantly boost GDP growth, with AI capex potentially contributing over 3% to GDP by 2027.
Read at www.businessinsider.com
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