The dollar index was under pressure on Wednesday as geopolitical fears abated amid calmer conditions in the Middle East, particularly after President Donald Trump signaled a temporary pause in naval operations around the Strait of Hormuz.
"Our base case is that the consumer will remain resilient and the AI tailwind will strengthen this year. But we caution that the Iran war could derail both spending (via inflation) and AI capex (via energy supply bottlenecks)."
The average price of one gallon of gasoline in the United States has reached $4.30, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA), up from less than $3 before the February 28 start of the US-Israel war on Iran.
Consumers are singing the blues. They aren't happy with high prices for gas, housing, electricity and many other items. It's clear consumers aren't going to feel much better until there's an end to the Middle East conflict.
One way is to increase income taxes. There's also the option for an annual or one-off wealth tax on everything someone has above a certain mark. A few governments want to tax extreme wealth to lower taxes on a stagnating middle class or to make up for social inequality.
Escalating geopolitical risk continued to dominate global markets' concerns, with safe-haven demand keeping the dollar index anchored near a multi-week high.
Goldman Sachs now expects Brent crude to average $105 per barrel in March and $115 in April before retreating to $80 by year-end, assuming roughly six weeks of Hormuz supply disruptions.