#inflation

#inflation

While the United States is not a major importer of actual food from the Middle East, rising oil prices and a shutdown of natural gas production could have effects on the cost of shipping and producing food that will force Americans to tighten their grocery budgets. Crude oil prices surged on Monday and were up again on Tuesday, seeing more than a 10% jump from last week.

We have come into 2026 planning for another challenging year. When you look at consumer confidence and disposable income, you can see that the backdrop is still tough out there. Currie expressed optimism that easing pressures could support consumer spending in 2026, but also recognised that demand remains fragile.

President Donald Trump declared victory over the country's cost-of-living woes on Tuesday, telling the crowd at an event in Georgia, I've won affordability. Trump delivered remarks at a steel fabricator in Rome, Georgia, where he touted his economic record and a historically high stock market. After listing some of his second term achievments, the president claimed to have won the battle for affordability, a word Democrats had made the centerpiece of last year's elections and the upcoming midterms.

the Federal Reserve Bank of New York show student loan and auto loan balances at record highs, while credit card balances have climbed to about $1.2 trillion. Delinquencies, particularly on credit cards, are also rising, with 90-day-plus late-payment rates for credit cards more than 12% higher than in prior years. Consumers are driving a lot of growth, but there are some signs of weakness for certain parts of the economy, Kan said, adding that these pressures could spill over into housing and mortgage performance.

This is the moment that Rachel Reeves was heckled by a member of the public during a visit to Sainsbury's. On Wednesday (18 February), the Chancellor paid a visit to a Sainsbury's Superstore in Sydenham, south-east London where she received a tour of the supermarket. As she was speaking to a cashier, an individual walked past her and called her a genocide supporter, in what appears to be a reference to the ongoing Israel-Gaza conflict.

The dollar remained range-bound on Tuesday, reflecting a market caught amid mixed economic data. Caution could dominate the market ahead of Friday's core PCE and updated GDP figures, both of which could recalibrate short-term expectations for US monetary policy. In the meantime, the 2-year and 10-year yields were hovering near multi-month lows, reflecting an increasingly confident market that the Federal Reserve may deliver up to three consecutive interest rate cuts.

Employers added a healthy 130,000 jobs in January, the Labor Department said this week, as the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%. The caveat? That announcement came with revisions that showed job creation flatlined over the last year, with only 15,000 jobs being added per month on average. Service sectors like finance and professional services that normally power the creation of high-paying office positions have instead been shedding jobs, perhaps reflecting employers' anticipation of AI-related cost savings.

In recent years, residual seasonality, along with delayed price adjustments in response to pandemic-era shocks, have led to upside CPI surprises in January, he told USA Today. These were no longer on full display this time around, further reinforcing our view (that) tariff-induced price increases on the goods side are largely behind us. But we aren't changing the baseline forecast for monetary policy based on one inflation reading.

Market volatility is high, with the VIX index up 5% in today's session. The latest inflation data came in better than expected, offering what should become relief for markets. Consumer prices rose 2.4% year over year last month, a cooler reading that brings inflation back toward levels last seen in mid-2025. As the gauge edges closer to the Federal Reserve's 2% target, expectations for an eventual rate cut are likely to gain momentum, even as this week's labor market data reflected strength.