#monetary-policy

#monetary-policy

EUR/USD is hovering around 1.1620, rebounding slightly from recent lows as expectations for a Eurozone recovery improve, while the U.S. dollar has paused after a strong rally. However, the euro's recovery remains limited due to the wide U.S.-EU interest rate gap and the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will maintain a cautious policy stance, while the ECB leans toward keeping rates steady.

That comes despite widespread optimism over US-China trade negotiations, which signal the potential for a breakthrough ahead of Trump's meeting with Xi later in the week. In Europe, this morning has seen a German Ifo business climate survey that brought an improved headline figure of 88.4, while the expectations metric rose to the highest level since Feb 2022. However, despite optimism over future business conditions, the worsening of current conditions (85.3) highlights a perception of a struggling economy that many hope will get better.

A chart making the rounds on social media has sparked intense debate about the state of the American economy. Since November 2022, when ChatGPT launched, the S&P 500 has surged more than 70% while job openings have plummeted roughly 30%. The juxtaposition has earned the graphic a foreboding nickname: the " scariest chart in the world."​ At first glance, the divergence appears to tell a simple story: that artificial intelligence has fractured the economy, enriching investors while devastating workers.

Headline CPI inflation held at 3.8% in September, a pace unchanged since July, in line with Cebr's forecasts. Overall, the picture for UK households is mixed. Food inflation slowed for the first time since March, from 5.1% to 4.5%, but prices for electricity, gas, and other fuels continued to rise, accelerating to 9.4% in September. Divergent price pressures place the Bank of England at a crossroads.

Silver prices fell sharply on Tuesday, retreating from last week's record highs as investors took profits following a rapid rally driven by tight supply conditions and macroeconomic tailwinds. The pullback comes as broader risk appetite improved, fuelled by easing US-China trade tensions and signs of progress in resolving the US government shutdown. President Donald Trump stated he expects to reach a "fair" trade agreement with Chinese President Xi Jinping during their upcoming meeting in South Korea, helping calm markets.

The dollar index traded within a narrow range on Monday as easing US-China tensions provided support to the greenback. Market sentiment improved slightly after President Donald Trump signalled that broad tariffs on China would be unsustainable and negotiators from both sides confirmed plans for renewed talks in the coming days. Any progress this week could reinforce risk appetite and support the dollar, while setbacks could quickly reverse the tone.

Explain how the time inconsistency of optimal monetary policy can lead to a stabilisation bias. How would the introduction of a price path target help to address it? After reading the question three times, I still couldn't make sense of it. I groaned, went back to the textbook, tried to read, made a cup of tea, and tried again. Nothing improved my focus.

"The global economy has remained resilient, but the full effects of higher tariffs and policy uncertainty have yet to be felt. Global economic growth is projected to slow, and significant risks remain, as well as concerns about fiscal sustainability and financial stability," OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann said.

Donald Trump has called for US companies to abandon quarterly reporting, shift to a semi-annual model. Having to cover this stuff, I can say that's something I and many like me could get behind. On a more serious note, the idea has plenty of merit - for instance it could foster a change where management focus all their efforts not on the next quarterly target, instead taking a more measured, long-term view.