#monetary-policy

#monetary-policy

September, or more likely October, is now the realistic opportunity for a rate cut, and even that is far from guaranteed. The data coming through is not consistent with easing in July. In fact, it points in the opposite direction. Inflation is not falling fast enough. The latest wholesale inflation data shows prices rising at 3.4% year-on-year, the strongest pace in a year, and core measures are still running close to 4%.

What makes him complicated for crypto is that he's not entirely against it. Warsh invested in [firms] behind a spot Bitcoin ETF, and in Electric Capital, a crypto-focused venture firm. He has called Bitcoin a "policeman" that keeps central banks honest. But his policy preferences—tighter money, higher real interest rates, and a smaller Fed balance sheet—are exactly the conditions that pull capital out of risk assets and back into bonds.

It's the folks who are entering the job market for the first time that are bearing the brunt of that, and to me, that's in a very standard, classic textbook way, exactly the type of unemployment that the Central Bank is equipped to help accommodate with looser monetary policy.

On one hand, the precious metal continues to benefit from its traditional role as a safe-haven asset amid a tense geopolitical backdrop. On the other hand, rising inflation concerns, fuelled by higher oil prices, are affecting the outlook for monetary policy and limiting further upside.

in order to land the nomination to succeed Jerome Powell the directive from the Oval Office was explicit: The candidate would have to be more dovish than Powell. Warsh, a former Fed Governor, fits the bill: He's bullish on the U.S. economy, thanks in large part to the promise of AI, and is advocating for relative economic tightening on the Fed's balance sheet to offset lower rates.

The VIX index, often referred to as Wall Street's "fear gauge," rose by 23%, indicating a sharp uptick in investor anxiety and concerns about market stability. A higher VIX suggests that investors anticipate potential volatility and seek protection against market downturns.

In contrast, the medium-term growth outlook has seen a slight improvement, with forecasts for 2027 and 2028 both increased to 1.6%. This positive adjustment suggests a potential stabilisation in economic performance over the next few years, albeit still below historic averages.

The chipmaker delivered better-than-expected results and projected current-quarter revenue above consensus, citing continued robust spending by major technology firms on AI infrastructure. Management emphasised that generative AI represents a structural shift in computing demand and signalled that, despite supply constraints at TSMC, Nvidia was able to secure the components needed to meet demand.

A new research paper published by a trio of Federal Reserve economists suggests that the prediction market platform is a useful method for measuring macroeconomic expectations - and it may even be better than some traditional methods. "Our results suggest that Kalshi markets provide a high-frequency, continuously updated, distributionally rich benchmark that is valuable to both researchers and policymakers," the researchers wrote.

In recent years, residual seasonality, along with delayed price adjustments in response to pandemic-era shocks, have led to upside CPI surprises in January, he told USA Today. These were no longer on full display this time around, further reinforcing our view (that) tariff-induced price increases on the goods side are largely behind us. But we aren't changing the baseline forecast for monetary policy based on one inflation reading.

The markets are seeing green across the board amid a near Goldilocks scenario in the economy. The latest jobs report reveals that conditions are neither too not nor too cold, with 130,000 jobs added last month, surpassing economist's most bullish of estimates, while the unemployment rate edged lower to a surprising 4.3% from 4.4% month-over-month. What it means for the Fed and interest rates will depend largely on the latest inflation data, with the CPI due out at the end of the week.

Markets were also bruised as a planned €220bn tie-up between mining giants Glencore and Rio Tinto was shelved. The pair have had a long-running, on-off engagement that has seen them try to tie the knot before. "Many wondered whether it might be third time lucky when Rio Tinto and Glencore got back around the table to discuss a deal which would have created the world's biggest mining company - but today it emerged it was not to be,"

The resilience of gold above $4,800 per ounce at this stage reflects a delicate and complex balance between traditional supporting factors and emerging pressures-one that cannot be superficially interpreted or reduced to the movement of the dollar alone. It is true that the U.S. dollar's retreat from its recent peaks, after failing to sustain its recovery momentum from a four-year low, provided gold with a short-term breather and attracted some buyers.