#geopolitical-risk

#geopolitical-risk

Rising inflation concerns, hawkish monetary policy signals, and escalating geopolitical tensions weighed on risk assets. Energy markets are adding to the pressure. Oil prices surged following renewed attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East, intensifying concerns about inflationary pressure.

The FTSE 100 has made another tentative step in early trade to recover losses sparked by the outbreak of war with Iran. Stocks on Wall Street are also set to resume a rally as investor sentiment recovers. Iraq has clinched a deal with Turkey to resume exports through the port of Ceyhan, instead of using the dangerous Strait of Hormuz. This is leading to hopes that a severe, prolonged oil shock will not materialise, as more crude supplies are able to filter out of the region through other routes.

In the ME-CENTRAL-1 (UAE) Region, two of our three Availability Zones (mec1-az2 and mec1-az3) remain significantly impaired. The third Availability Zone (mec1-az1) continues to operate normally, though some services have experienced indirect impact due to dependencies on the affected zones. In the ME-SOUTH-1 (Bahrain) Region, one facility has been impacted.

The current decline in silver prices is not merely a temporary correction, but a deeper repricing of market expectations regarding the path of U.S. interest rates, which remains the most influential factor in the short term for non-yielding assets.

The recent incidents in the Strait of Hormuz show how quickly maritime risk can escalate from geopolitical tension to operational disruption. For shipping operators, the challenge is not only the threat environment itself, but also maintaining reliable situational awareness as navigation signals degrade and vessel activity becomes harder to interpret.

Bitcoin price rising about 8% since the first strikes against Iran, reaching a one-month high above $73,000. The move placed the digital asset ahead of several traditional safe-haven and risk assets during a period of geopolitical stress.

The sharp decline witnessed in U.S. equity markets signals an important shift in global market sentiment, after the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost more than 700 points to close below the 47,000 level for the first time in 2026. At the same time, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also fell to their lowest levels this year.

Oil WTI crude climbed from $71 a barrel on March 2 to $94.65 by March 9 in a single week, after the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed and Iranian energy infrastructure was struck. Brent briefly touched elevated intraday highs before pulling back when Trump signaled the conflict was winding down.

USDA estimates for major crops were largely unchanged from the previous month, resulting in muted market reactions. For wheat, the USDA maintained its U.S. production, supply, and ending stocks forecasts with no revisions. Global wheat production was adjusted slightly higher, largely due to increased output estimates in Ukraine and Kazakhstan, partially offset by a smaller Australian crop.

KeyBanc lowered its price target to $295 from $330 and kept its Overweight rating after adjusting estimates post-earnings. The firm attributes the target reduction to recent changes to the SCAR program and timing in contract awards. Despite the revision, KeyBanc's broader conviction on AeroVironment is unchanged: the firm maintains that AeroVironment is positioned to capitalize on the proliferation of UAS/cUAS and increased government spending in defense and space-related programs.

Persistent tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East sustain the demand for safe-haven assets. However, the surge in oil prices raised concerns about inflationary pressures, pushing up inflation expectations and lifting Treasury yields, which could continue to weigh on gold.

Growth prospects are also weighed down by continuing geopolitical tensions and conflicts. Risks stem in particular from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the confrontations in the Middle East, as well as growing uncertainties regarding the policy stance of the USA and the global increase of geoeconomic measures, which could further exacerbate geopolitical tensions.

When geopolitical stress spikes, gold and silver are where nervous capital runs. And right now, there's plenty to be nervous about. Geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing Iran war reshaping energy markets, U.S. actions related to Venezuela, and global trade and tariff uncertainty, are pushing investors into gold and silver as stores of value.

Europe had turned its back on a reliable, affordable source of low-emission power. For fossil fuels, we are completely dependent on expensive and volatile imports. They are putting us at a structural disadvantage to other regions.

For cruise lines, fuel is one of the single largest operating expenses. But not all three major operators are equally exposed. Carnival does not hedge its fuel purchases. That means every dollar oil climbs hits Carnival's margins directly, with no buffer. Royal Caribbean and Norwegian Cruise Line both have fuel hedges in place, which is exactly why they are holding up comparatively better today.

For the 25 major episodes going back to 1950, we typically see a decline in the S&P of around 4%. Now, usually after a month, the S&P tends to recover that entire decline. Then he immediately walked it back. The playbook, he said, does not apply here.

When the U.S. invaded Iraq in March 2003, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld famously predicted the conflict would last "six days, six weeks-I doubt six months." It lasted eight years, injured nearly 40,000 Americans, killed 4,500, and drained what Brown University's Costs of War project calculates as nearly $2 trillion in direct spending-with veterans' medical and disability payments projected to add $1 trillion more over 40 years.

Before the Iran war began, a rate cut at the Bank's next meeting on 19 March had been an 80% chance, but policymakers are now expected to wait to see how the conflict develops with a 99% probability of a hold at the meeting and no rate cuts for the rest of 2026, markets indicate.

CrowdStrike recorded its first-ever positive GAAP net income of $38.69 million, flipping from a $86.29 million loss in the same quarter a year ago. Revenue grew 23% year-over-year to $1.305 billion, edging past estimates. Ending ARR hit $5.25 billion, up 24%, while net new ARR of $330.7 million surged 47% year-over-year, a record.

The closure of the strait of Hormuz, through which travels a fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies. Since the start of the hostilities, the global benchmark oil price has jumped by 17% to more than US$85 a barrel, triggering shock waves through financial markets.

Launched in August 2022, DRLL was built on a specific premise: ESG-influenced asset managers were pressuring energy companies to underinvest in oil and gas. Strive's answer was an ETF designed to push holdings toward maximum production and shareholder returns, not carbon reduction targets. With 98.6% of the portfolio in energy and nearly half the fund split between Exxon Mobil and Chevron, the exposure is about as concentrated as it gets in public markets.

There's no doubt that what's happening now is an order of magnitude bigger - in terms of potential fallout for oil markets - than Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The global benchmark Brent crude is trading around $88 Friday morning, up roughly $16 since military strikes against Iran began.

On one hand, the precious metal continues to benefit from its traditional role as a safe-haven asset amid a tense geopolitical backdrop. On the other hand, rising inflation concerns, fuelled by higher oil prices, are affecting the outlook for monetary policy and limiting further upside.