Inflation is the reason the Fed can't step in to help. The Fed's preferred gauge hit 3.1% year-over-year in January 2026 and is expected to hover near 2.9% through December—well above the 2% target.
Brazil is the world's dominant sugar exporter, accounting for roughly 45% of global sugar trade. The decision on how much sugarcane goes to sugar versus ethanol is influenced by fluctuating oil prices.
Small businesses, they don't have the margins or the reserves to really absorb those kinds of cost increases. They're faced with a dilemma of, do they try to expedite some of the shipments that might be delayed right now, or do they deal with the shortages.
Delta raised its Q1 revenue growth guidance to the high single digits, above its prior 5-7% forecast, while absorbing roughly $400 million in additional fuel costs since the escalation of the Iran conflict.
Inflation is still stubbornly above its 2% target, and while the jobs sector is weak, it has not been alarming enough to spur significant action from the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
New disruptions affecting energy infrastructure in the region could continue to fuel fears of shortages on a global scale, although calls to spare energy sites could support hopes of lower tensions. In the meantime, shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained largely at a standstill, keeping the region's energy exports constrained and increasing uncertainty in the market.
We are not a party to the conflict and therefore France will never take part in operations to open or liberate the Strait of Hormuz in the current context. However, we are convinced that once the situation becomes calmer... we are ready, alongside other nations, to take responsibility for an escort system.
The dollar stabilised to a certain extent today after retreating in the prior session, but could remain relatively volatile as markets react to geopolitical developments in the Middle East. Treasury yields were firmer following a pullback on Monday as well.
If we ever needed help, they won't be there for us. I've just known that for a long period of time... We have some that are really enthusiastic. They're coming already... My attitude is, we don't need anybody. We're the strongest nation in the world. We have the strongest military by far in the world we don't need them.
The dominant force in play remains the Middle East conflict, which has kept oil prices elevated and inflation expectations firm. Reports that Washington is assembling a coalition to escort vessels through the Strait of Hormuz could offer some relief for the oil market and could weigh on the dollar.
Average U.S. regular gasoline prices are $3.70 per gallon on Sunday, up roughly 70 cents during the war, per AAA. It's up 46% since the U.S. strikes began. Trump said Friday that the U.S. hit military targets on Iran's Kharg Island, the origin point for almost all Iranian oil exports.
WTI crude is currently just shy of $94 a barrel, with brent at $99, just a hair away from $100. The move was driven by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The move has been swift and severe, with energy ETFs like USO surging nearly 10% in a single session.
The US-Israeli war on Iran has already led to hundreds of deaths, created an ecological crisis linked to strikes on oil depots and sent fossil fuel prices haywire across the globe. Critics say the war also shows the inherent instability of dependence on oil and gas: unlike wind and solar power, fossil fuel-based energy requires constant inputs of products whose availability and costs are determined by the global market.
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