"Suddenly, and not long ago, our dearest tech industry leaders began to suggest caution. Sam Altman said that AI is in a bubble "for sure," albeit one formed around "a kernel of truth." Mark Zuckerberg said an AI bubble "is quite possible," though "if the models keep on growing in capability year over year and demand keeps growing, then maybe there is no collapse, or something." Even Eric Schmidt is saying to calm down about artificial general intelligence and focus on competing with China."
"Will someone find a way to build AI tools at one-thousandth the price, letting a thousand ChatGPTs bloom? Are we going to check the news one day and see those photos of stock traders yelling to each other on the floor of the exchange as tech companies' stock prices blink bright red? My answer is: I have no earthly idea."
"I love normal technologies. They come with manuals. They change periodically, but you can build craft and professional skills around them. Bubble technologies change constantly, and there is always a threat that they will either destroy society (bad) or make everyone besides you wealthy (worse). There are many ways to forecast when a technology is becoming normal-price-to-earnings ratios and other boring stuff."
Tech leaders have warned that AI sits in a speculative bubble while acknowledging genuine advances. Questions remain about how the bubble will burst — reduced user interest, dramatic cost reductions, or market sell-offs are possibilities. There is a preference for AI to become normal: stable, documented, and skill-based. Normal technologies allow manuals, periodic change, and craftable professional skills. Bubble technologies shift rapidly and carry risks of societal harm or extreme wealth concentration. A heuristic called the C/B ratio (conferences to blogging) indicates maturity: many conferences mean immaturity; prevalent blogging suggests normalization. The current landscape features numerous AI conferences and few substantive technical blog posts.
Read at WIRED
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