State Street's 2026 Outlook Exposes Why Most Investors Still Underweight Gold After Its 50% Rally
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State Street's 2026 Outlook Exposes Why Most Investors Still Underweight Gold After Its 50% Rally
"The three vehicles tracking LBMA gold prices delivered nearly identical returns over the past year. iShares Gold Trust returned 39.36% over the trailing year and 69.3% from January 2, 2025 through May 4, 2026. iShares Gold Trust Micro returned 69.72% over the same window, and SPDR Gold Trust returned 68.98%. The spread maps to expense ratios. IAUM charges 9 basis points, IAU charges 25 basis points, and GLD charges 40 basis points."
"The setup that drove the rally persists. CPI sits at 330.3 in March 2026, a 90th-percentile reading, and M2 money supply expanded to $22.69 trillion. The 10-year Treasury yields 4.39%, elevated but well off the May 2025 high of 4.58%. Lower real yields reduce gold's opportunity cost. All three ETFs carry the same tax wrinkle: long-term gains are taxed as collectibles at up to 28%, not the standard 15% to 20% capital gains rate."
"A 5% to 10% gold sleeve works as an inflation hedge without crowding out equity compounding. On a $500,000 portfolio, that is $25,000 to $50,000. Match the wrapper to the use case: IAUM for buy-and-hold core exposure. The 9 bp fee compounds into meaningful savings over extended holding periods."
Precious metals delivered exceptional returns in 2025, with US precious metals ETFs accumulating $310 billion in assets despite minimal retail and advisor portfolio allocation. Three physically backed gold ETFs tracking LBMA prices—iShares Gold Trust (IAU), iShares Gold Trust Micro (IAUM), and SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)—delivered nearly identical returns, with performance differences driven by expense ratios ranging from 9 to 40 basis points. The macro environment supporting gold remains intact, featuring elevated CPI readings and expanded money supply, while lower real yields reduce gold's opportunity cost. All three ETFs face identical tax treatment as collectibles at up to 28%, making IRA holdings preferable. A 5% to 10% gold allocation serves as an effective inflation hedge without compromising equity returns.
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