The drought affecting the Southwestern US could extend for the entirety of the 21st century and potentially beyond. Research indicates that global warming is altering the distribution of heat in the Pacific Ocean, a phenomenon related to the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). This alteration results in decreased winter precipitation in the region. Current conditions have led to a megadrought characterized by significant landscape aridification, further exacerbated by climate change and excessive water use, affecting major rivers such as the Colorado and Rio Grande.
"If the sea surface temperature patterns in the North Pacific were just the result of processes related to stochastic [random] variability in the past decade or two, we would have just been extremely unlucky, like a really bad roll of the dice."
"But if, as we hypothesize, this is a forced change in the sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific, this will be sustained into the future, and we need to start looking at this as a shift, instead of just the result of bad luck."
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