""Open source package compromise feeds malware distribution and credential theft," the research states. "Phishing and OAuth abuse enable identity compromise that unlocks SaaS and CI/CD environments. Data breaches supply the credentials, context, and relationships needed to refine impersonation and lateral movement. Ransomware and extortion arrive later in the chain, capitalizing on access and intelligence gathered earlier. Each stage strengthens the next, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of supply chain exploitation.""
"Over the next year, GroupIB predicts supply chain attacks will be executed faster thanks to AI-assisted tools that can scan for vulnerabilities across vendors, CI/CD pipelines, and browser extension marketplaces at machine speed. It also expects to see traditional malware replaced by identity attacks, whereby criminals set themselves up as genuine users and their activity blends into the normal daily business functions, evading detection for longer periods."
Supply chain attacks have evolved into interconnected operations that combine open-source package compromise, malware distribution, credential theft, phishing, OAuth abuse, data breaches, and ransomware into a self-reinforcing cycle. Package poisoning and vendor breaches provide inherited access to downstream customers, while data breaches supply credentials and context for refined impersonation and lateral movement. Phishing and OAuth abuse enable identity compromise that unlocks SaaS and CI/CD environments. AI-assisted tools will accelerate the discovery of vulnerabilities across vendors, pipelines, and marketplaces. Identity-based attacks increasingly replace traditional malware, and compromises of HR, CRM, ERP platforms and MSPs can expose hundreds of customers.
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