"Meanwhile, in Warsaw and Vilnius, shoppers flee as flames engulf two of the largest city malls. Investigators soon discover the arsonists are teenagers recruited online, guided by encrypted messages, and paid by actors connected to hostile state agencies. The chaos sows fear, erodes social trust, and sends shockwaves through European communities-proxy sabotage that destabilizes societies while providing plausible deniability to those orchestrating the acts."
"Thousands of kilometers away, Chinese dredgers and coast guard vessels silently transform disputed reefs into fortified islands in the South China Sea. With no declaration of war and no pitched battles, new airstrips and bases appear, steadily shifting maritime boundaries and economic interests. Each construction project redraws the strategic realities of an entire region, forcing neighbors and distant powers alike to reckon with incremental, shadowy coercion and efforts to change the status quo."
"In early 2024, Chinese state-sponsored hackers, known as "Volt Typhoon," penetrated U.S data repositories and embedded themselves deep within the control systems of U.S. critical infrastructure, including communication networks, energy grids, and water treatment facilities. Then-FBI Director Christopher Wray described it as a pre-positioning of capabilities by China that can be turned on whenever Beijing wanted - wreaking havoc and causing real-world harm to American citizens and communities. China has denied any connection to these attacks on U.S. sovereignty."
Urban arson in Warsaw and Vilnius involved teenagers recruited online, guided by encrypted messages, and paid by actors tied to hostile state agencies, producing fear and eroding social trust. Chinese dredgers and coast guard vessels converted disputed reefs into fortified islands, adding airstrips and bases that incrementally altered maritime boundaries and economic influence without open warfare. Chinese state-sponsored hackers known as "Volt Typhoon" penetrated U.S. data repositories and embedded in critical infrastructure, described as a pre-positioning of capabilities. Repeated airspace violations by Russian drones and jets tested NATO allies and signaled probing of capability and resolve. These tactics produce destabilization while allowing plausible deniability.
Read at The Cipher Brief
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