Belief in conspiracy theories is associated with motivated reasoning and a lack of awareness about how fringe their beliefs actually are. Individuals tend to overestimate how many others agree with them, sometimes by a factor of four. Researchers found that conspiracy theorists display substantial overconfidence and believe they’re in the majority regarding their views. Psychological aspects that drive these beliefs include the desire to feel unique and the reinforcement of personal worldviews. The phenomenon of false consensus, where believers think their views are widely shared, is notably strong among conspiracy theorists.
Belief in conspiracy theories often stems from motivated reasoning, with individuals overestimating the level of agreement from others, resulting in significant overconfidence.
Research indicates that conspiracy theorists overestimate how many people share their beliefs, with some believing this consensus may be four times greater than reality.
Gordon Pennycook noted that the overconfidence in conspiracy theorists was expected, but the extent to which they believe they are the majority surprised researchers.
The findings suggest a large false consensus effect, where conspiracy believers think the public agrees with them far more than they actually do.
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