"The next third might take 3-6 months, and we'd finally get back to pre-war prices I'd say right now in early/mid 2027. Even assuming a true and lasting end to the military conflict, it would still be several months before traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returns to its pre-war level."
"In the short term, even when oil prices fall - which they have already this week on news of progress toward a deal - gas stations are working through the higher cost inventory they bought when prices were higher. It's one of the reasons market-watchers point out the "rocket and feathers" dynamic - retail fuel costs shoot up when oil prices do, but can decline slowly even when crude falls sharply."
"Reviving oil loadings and transit from the Mideast will take time, and so will bringing back the crude production that Persian Gulf producers dialed down when export routes were cut off. A 30-day phased reopening of the Strait would be an "optimistic scenario," and "meaningful volume recovery would happen in June at the earliest.""
U.S. retail gasoline prices have surged to $4.54 per gallon from pre-war levels under $3, driven by global oil market turmoil. While some price relief could occur within days if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, full recovery will take considerably longer. Analysts project prices may decline by one-third of the wartime increase within one to three months, with another third taking three to six months, and complete recovery to pre-war prices not occurring until early-to-mid 2027. The prolonged recovery stems from the time required to restore oil loadings, transit routes from the Middle East, and crude production that Persian Gulf producers reduced when export routes were disrupted. Additionally, gas stations work through higher-cost inventory purchased during peak prices, creating a "rocket and feathers" dynamic where retail prices rise quickly but decline slowly.
#gasoline-prices #oil-market-disruption #strait-of-hormuz #energy-economics #price-recovery-timeline
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