Existing home sales remain stable with growing inventory, which is a positive sign. Homebuilders are likely to reduce housing permits due to declining profit margins and significant stress, reflected in low confidence data. Current homebuilder confidence is close to levels experienced during the COVID-19 recession, affecting housing permits. A decrease in mortgage rates toward 6% would help stabilize construction and mitigate job losses. While high mortgage rates have historically lowered sales, existing home sales data for 2025 show potential for growth if rates decline slightly.
Existing home sales are not experiencing a crash, and the growth in active inventory is a positive development. Homebuilders are likely to curb housing permits due to falling profit margins.
Homebuilder confidence is low, hovering close to the lows during the COVID-19 recession, indicating significant stress among builders and contributing to low housing permits.
Residential construction workers are a key labor recession trigger, and lowering mortgage rates toward 6% could benefit housing construction and help prevent job losses in the private payroll sectors.
Despite higher mortgage rates, existing home sales data for 2025 isn't collapsing, and there is potential for sales growth if rates can lower slightly for the remainder of the year.
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