Mortgage rates at 6% could stimulate the housing market, but the Federal Reserve's policy focuses on labor and inflation, adversely affecting housing. The National Association of Home Builders survey shows builder confidence at multi-year lows. Larger homebuilders can withstand rising mortgage rates better than smaller ones, which would face more severe impacts on housing starts and construction employment. Current housing data is disappointing, with permits likely peaking unless rates decline. Overall, the market remains frustrated as rates hover near 7%, hindering growth compared to 2019 levels.
Mortgage rates around 6% could help initiate positive movement in the housing market, but currently, rates nearing 7% or higher are detrimental for builders.
The National Association of Home Builders confidence data indicates multi-year lows for builder sentiment, reflecting significant struggles within the housing sector.
Larger publicly traded homebuilders have the profit margins to absorb rising mortgage rates, but housing starts and construction employment would be in worse shape without them.
Housing construction permit data has likely peaked for this decade unless mortgage rates decrease, with current conditions reminiscent of the COVID-19 recession.
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