#market-sentiment

#market-sentiment

At the time of writing, gold is down to $4,700 per Troy Ounce, having sat comfortably above $5,000 for the latter part of January. Silver is also down to $80 per Troy Ounce, similarly dropping on Thursday when news that Kevin Warsh would receive the nomination for Fed chairman firmed up. The price of precious metals, seen as an asset of safe haven, had pushed steadily higher over the past year in response to economic volatility.

Here's the thing about The Trade Desk's upcoming report: the numbers almost don't matter. I mean, they do -- analysts want roughly $841 million in revenue (up from $749 million) and $0.34 per share in earnings (down from $0.59). Management guided for revenue of at least $840 million. But this stock fell after strong reports all 2025 long. The market is in a mood, and even solid numbers are no guarantee of a bullish Street reaction.

A recent Gemini XRP poll (December 12-23, 2025) shows a striking consensus: 73% of respondents now predict XRP ( ) will finish 2025 between $1.50 and $2.00. This crowd-driven XRP price prediction for December 2025 implies a very muted year-end for the coin, given XRP's current level around $1.88. Just a few weeks ago, traders were more bullish-about 38% expected XRP to rally to $2.00-$2.50 by December 31, but that figure has since plunged to 28%.

When Oracle failed to meet revenue expectations and suggested that large-scale data centers may not be ready until 2028, it immediately chilled sentiment across the entire sector. On the same day the Dow pushed to new highs, the Nasdaq was hit hard, with anything even loosely tied to AI selling off aggressively. That divergence told us the market was reassessing the timeline, not the technology.

The company is seeking a $1.5 trillion valuation - the richest listing in history, per Bloomberg. Combined with other possible listings, Bloomberg estimates that as much as $2.9 trillion worth of private companies could go public next year. Other AI-linked "centicorns" - companies valued at $100-billion plus-are reportedly weighing listings, including Databricks and Anthropic. OpenAI has an implied valuation of over $500 billion, fueling speculation about a future stock listing, though it has attempted to tamp that down.

Yesterday, the leading Digital Asset Treasury company for Ethereum, Bitmine (NASDAQ: BMNR), posted an update on its holding through December 8th. They possess nearly 4m in ETH, 192 BTC, $1b in cash, and a $36m stake in Eightco Holdings (NASDAQ: ORBS). Tom Lee has stated the company's goal is to own 5% of the ETH supply, and they continue to purchase Ethereum on a weekly basis. As of yesterday, Bitmine had purchased 138,452 ETH over the prior week, the largest purchase week for Bitmine.

"OpenAI was the golden child earlier this year, and Alphabet was looked at in a very different light," said Brett Ewing, chief market strategist at First Franklin Financial Services. "Now sentiment is much more tempered toward OpenAI."

What I find most fascinating about the markets in general (mostly the headlines in the financial media) is the amount of certainty that can go into bullish or bearish calls. Whichever side of the fence a particular analyst or talking head finds themselves on, I feel as though a given position can become more entrenched over time. For the better part of the past two decades, bulls have been correct in digging their heels in and calling recession calls "insane," or at least unlikely.

It will certainly be interesting to write the obituary for 2025. Given that there's one month left in this fiscal year (plenty of time for lots to take place), I wouldn't be surprised to either see an incredible Santa Claus rally materialize into year end, or a continuation of some of the bearish momentum we've seen build form into a full-blown market selloff as investors reposition their portfolios for more downside as this AI selloff continues.

Alphabet Inc. ( NASDAQ: GOOG) shares climbed 2.1% on Friday, November 28, 2025, as retail sentiment surged to 64 (bullish) while NVIDIA Corporation ( NASDAQ: NVDA) sentiment dropped to 33 (bearish). The catalyst: reports that Meta Platforms Inc. ( NASDAQ:META) is in advanced talks to spend billions on Google's TPU chips instead of NVIDIA's GPUs, triggering discussion about the first real crack in NVIDIA's dominance.

Sure, they believed in the enduring appeal of New York and dutifully recited the mantra about how resilient the real-estate market was and how it had weathered any number of crises (9/11, the 2008 recession, COVID, the mansion tax) only to emerge stronger than ever. But they'd also seen clients depart or downsize to pieds-à-terreafter the pandemic and were terrified that Mamdani's win would make others do the same.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman's comments helped spark concerns about an AI bubble.

Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR), the world's largest corporate holder of bitcoin, expanded its treasury once again last week, purchasing 168 BTC for $18.8 million at an average price of $112,051 per coin, according to a new U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filing. Following the purchase, Strategy now holds 640,418 BTC, acquired at a total cost of roughly $47.40 billion, reflecting an average purchase price of $74,010 per bitcoin.

The UK IPO market has largely remained in 'wait and see' mode throughout 2025, as companies navigate the repercussions of prolonged geopolitical and macroeconomic instability. However, we are starting to see a shift in sentiment with several large IPOs already confirmed this month. Momentum is now building and the IPO pipeline for the next six to 12 months is strengthening as market conditions improve, with prospective companies keen to move when the pricing window opens.

Key findings found that business volumes declined in the quarter to September at the fastest rate since June 2020 (weighted balance of -36% from -24% in June). However, firms expect volumes growth to make a strong recovery next quarter (+37%). Sentiment was broadly flat in the three months to September, following a sharp fall in June (+3 from -52% in June).

Last month, the stock skyrocketed after an analyst predicted a jaw-dropping 1,000% gain, fueling a frenzy among retail investors. However, the rally collapsed almost as quickly as it began.

Diane Brady highlights how the U.S. economy remains resilient despite the ongoing tariff wars. Market reactions indicate mixed sentiments about future leadership, like fears surrounding President Trump's potential actions against Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Market sentiment has turned fearful now that tensions between Israel and Iran have worsened, leading to a notable drop in technology stocks and impacting major indices.

"Splits matter - because these stocks outperform after the announcement, by a lot. Average returns one year later are 25% vs. 12% for the S&P 500 SPX as a whole, say researchers at Bank of America."

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is widely regarded as overhyped, often misused by traders who rely on emotional market signals rather than concrete data.

There's an incredible amount of uncertainty that's been building within the stock market since the start of the year, exacerbated by a new administration's unpredictable policies.